Will Mamata vote against the government today? Unlikely, say sources

Kolkata:  Mamata Banerjee's commitment to her fight against the National Counter Terrorism Centre could be tested today in Parliament. The head of the Trinamool Congress has field-marshalled a group of ten chief ministers who have opposed the Centre's new anti-terror agency on the grounds that it erodes the autonomy of state governments.

Ms Banerjee's party members had moved amendments to "the motion of thanks to the President" for her speech delivered this week to Parliament (the President's address  outlines the government's agenda). In the Lok Sabha, these amendments have been rejected on technical grounds - the wording was incorrect and they were filed too late. But they've been accepted in the Rajya Sabha. The main Opposition party, the BJP, has moved similar amendments. So if Ms Banerjee wants to further embarrass the government which she belongs to, her MPs could vote with the BJP and against the ruling UPA. That's not likely to happen, say sources.

The exit route for Ms Banerjee may come in the form of a protest by her MPs, who could walk out of the House before a vote, demanding financial assistance for West Bengal, which is governed by their leader. Ms Banerjee has been asking the Centre for Rs 22000 crore; she also wants the Centre to suspend the interest the state owes on loans already taken.

Financial assistance is the Centre's only hold over Ms Banerjee, whose relationship with the UPA has been in the danger zone for a while now. At a dinner hosted by the Prime Minister last night, Ms Banerjee was missing - she chose to fly to Nagpur instead to attend a wedding. The fact that she deputed a first-time MP, Ratna De Nag, and not one of her senior ministers or leaders was seen as a flat snub to the Congress.

Pointedly, Ms Banerjee deputed two of her Union ministers to attend the swearing-in of the Punjab government, a partnership between the Akalis and the BJP. For the UPA's political rival, Ms Banerjee sent a senior delegation. The Prime Minister's dinner, in comparison, received minimal attention.

At the dinner on Tuesday night, senior Congress leader Pranab Mukherjee made it clear that Ms Banerjee's amendments could cost the government heavily - if a vote was held, he warned, the government could lose.

Ms Banerjee's 19 Lok Sabha MPs give her the power to call the shots with the Congress - without her support, the UPA would collapse - and she has held the government and its policies to hostage with increasing daring. She recently forced the UPA to suspend its reforms in retail - the increased Foreign Direct Investment in shops or chains that stock different brands was a move by the Prime Minister and his team to prove wrong allegations of policy paralysis.

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